There is not much evidence that Christian growth continued in China after 2010, according to the Pew Research Center.
Although there have been arguments in recent decades to support the rapid development of Christianity in China, Pew’s new research titled “Measuring Religion in China”, which was released on August 30, concludes from a range of data that there is no evidence that Christianity in China is growing after 2010.
"Some scholars and journalists have argued in recent decades that Christianity in China is growing rapidly. Indeed, Christianity flourished after China entered an era of economic reforms and “opening up” to the world in the 1980s. But recent surveys that measure zongjiao affiliation do not offer much evidence that Christian growth continued after 2010," the research said.
“Some media reports and academic papers have suggested the Christian share may be larger, with estimates as high as 7% (100 million) or 9% (130 million) of the total population, including children. No national surveys that measure formal Christian affiliation—by asking people which religion (zongjiao) they identify with—come close to these figures,” claimed Pew.
The analyses are based on the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS), the 2016 China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), the China Labor-force Dynamics Survey (CLDS), the 2018 World Values Survey (WVS), and government data due to the political sensitivity, self-identification, and sampling issues of counting Christians in China.
“According to the CGSS, about 2% of adults (23.2 million) in China self-identified as Christians in 2010, versus 2% (19.9 million) in the 2018 survey—a gap that is not statistically significant.”
“In 2010, 38% of Christians said they engaged in zongjiao (religious) activities at least once a week, while in 2018, 35% said so—a difference that is not statistically significant,” Pew added.
“Between 2009 and 2018, the number of official Protestant clergy (pastors, ministers, and ordained elders) declined slightly from around 37,000 to 36,000.” Pew said. “This trend also appears to conflict with the CCC and TSPM’s emphasis on training Protestant clergy for the official system; around 6,300 students graduated from theological seminaries between 2013 and 2018.”
The official date demonstrates that the year 2018 witnessed the existence of 60,000 legal Protestant venues, “largely unchanged from a total of 58,000 venues in 2009,” without the calculation of “Protestant house churches or authorized meeting points.”
According to the report's analysis of church geographic distribution, there were 17% of Protestant churches in the central province of Henan in 2004 and 13% in the eastern coastal province of Zhejiang.
When it comes to “traits associated with formal Christian affiliation,” Pew claims that adult-identified Christians “are more likely to say religion is very important in their lives” than those who say they believe in Jesus Christ without identifying with Christianity, according to the CFPS. Moreover, they prefer to state that their worship service attendance reaches at least once a week.
Respondents who regard Christianity as their faith are “older and have lower educational attainment than the average Chinese adult,” according to the 2018 CGSS. Women are more than men.
“一些学者和记者认为，近几十年来基督教在中国发展迅速。确实，基督教在中国于20世纪80年代进入改革开放时代后蓬勃发展，但最近关于宗教归属的调查并没有提供太多证据，可以表明基督徒在2010年之后还在持续增长。”国际宗教智库皮尤研究中心（Pew Research Center）在8月30日发布的一份中国宗教信仰评估报告中说道。
该研究属于皮尤-坦普尔顿全球宗教未来（Pew-Templeton Global Religious Futures项）项目的一部分，旨在阐释测量中国宗教及其趋势所面临的挑战，其数据主要来自中国的学术团体所开展的调查，包括中国综合社会调查（CGSS）、中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）、中国劳动力动态调查（CLDS）和世界价值观调查（WVS），以及中国政府和全国宗教组织比如基督教两会等所发布的信息。
报告分别对中国境内的儒教、道教、民间宗教、佛教、基督教、伊斯兰教、无宗教派等在2018年及之前的情况做出分析。对于中国基督教人数、分布、发展趋势等情况，各机构历来的数据各异，有其复杂缘由，皮尤在分析报告中根据各个机构的调查结果，总结趋势并分析造成差异的影响因素，为读者作参考。
皮尤表示，海内外不同机构对中国基督徒人数的调查结果存在大小不一的差距，是由于不同研究人员使用的数据来源和调查方法各异，且有些分析会针对政治文化原因造成的调查和数据上的局限性做出部分调整。尽管调查问卷中使用的问题术语或措辞不同，但问及宗教归属问题，多数调查对中国成年基督徒人数的估算都较为接近。
例如，2016年中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）的调查中，使用“你属于哪个宗教？”来提问，结果显示3%的中国成年人表示自己“属于”基督教；2018年世界价值观调查（WVS）用“你信仰哪个宗教？”来提问，2%的中国成年人表示“信仰”基督教；同年，中国综合社会调查（CGSS）使用“你的宗教信仰是什么？”来提问，结果也显示约2%的中国成年人即约2000万人在这个问题下认为自己是基督徒，其中新教徒占90%，约1800万人，其余大部分是天主教徒，包括东正教在内的小众基督教群体在中国成年人基督徒中所占比例不到1%。
在此基础上，皮尤指出，根据中国综合社会调查的数据，2010年中国有2320万人自认信仰基督教，2018年有1990万人，人数没有增长且有所下降，但2010年以来的“这一差距在统计学上并不显著。”
就新教教会数量来看，1997到2008年间，教堂和聚会点等登记教会聚会场所数量明显增加，但自2009到2018年间，新教活动场所从只略有增加，从58000到约6万，十年间基本持平。同时，几乎所有消息来源都表明，中国天主教人口并没有增长。
但宗教身份认同与信仰实践是两个问题，皮尤在报告中指出，调查报告中若询问基督教信仰实践，则与基督教信仰有联系的人要比自认是基督徒的人要多。2018年的中国家庭追踪调查显示，约有7%的中国成年人即8100万人都“相信”耶稣基督和/或天主。在最广义的、最具包容性的基督教密切度评量里，有8%的中国成年人在一定程度上与基督教有所联系，他们或者具有正式的基督徒宗教身份认同，或相信基督教里的上帝，或参与基督徒通常参与的某种敬拜活动。
有些学者认为，这样的衡量问题更能彰显真实情况，因为它以基督教的核心教义来提问作为辨别基督徒的方式。但数据同样显示，在这些人群中只相信耶稣基督和/或天主，不同时相信佛陀、菩萨、神仙、安拉等神灵的人只有约3%。并且，根据2016年和2018年中国家庭追踪研究（CFPS）的调查数据，正式认定基督教是自己“信仰”的人，与“相信”耶稣和/或天主但不认为自己是基督徒的人相比，更秉持基督信仰的独一性（68%对比40%），更认为宗教在自己的生活中非常重要（61%对比29%），也更有可能每周参加一次或多次敬拜活动（55%对比21%）。
对于这群自我认同为基督徒的人群，中国综合社会调查（CGSS）的调查显示，2010年至2018年间其宗教活动频次大致稳定：在2010年有38%的基督徒表示，每周至少参加一次宗教活动，2018年为35%，无明显变化。这些都与皮尤得出2010年以来中国教会并未持续增长的结论相符合。
一些人认为近年来中国政府对宗教活动的管控审查，会让受访者越来越不愿意承认自己是基督徒，从而会导致调查结果显示基督教人数要比实际上少，但皮尤表示这也只是一种假设，无法从现有的调查数据中得知实际情况是否如此。
报告中写道，“一些媒体报道和学术论文推论基督徒在中国占比要大得多，认为包括儿童在中国基督徒估计可高达总人口的7%或9%，即1亿或1.3亿人。但没有任何一项通过询问人们的宗教身份认同来进行的正式的全国性调查报告可以支持这个结论。”
与此同时，皮尤也注意到，来自官方和国际基督教组织的一些数据似乎支持中国基督教持续蓬勃发展的说法，但其数据可靠性要打折扣。例如，官方不定期公布的基督徒统计数据中估计，新教徒人数可能已从1949年的70万增加到2018年的3800万，但报告认为这两个数字没有直接可比性，因为调查来源和方法发生了改变，且都没有说明其中是否包括儿童。
无独有偶，有数据显示，中国基督徒从2008年到2016年从2000万增加至2800万，但并不清楚，其增长是新皈信者还是之前在非注册教堂活动的信徒被纳入注册教堂所带来的。
也有国际非盈利组织和倡导团体，例如位于美国的跨宗派基督教事工亚洲丰（Asia Harvest）估计2020年中国各年龄段的新教基督徒人数为1.097 亿（占全国总人口的8%），仅三自教会新教徒人数就可达3980万，远远高于政府统计数据，后者统计2018年中国新教信徒包括三自和非三自教会一共约为3800万。
对此皮尤认为，亚洲丰的评估是基于对已发表资料（包括政府数据）的二次分析，以及对未注册教会领袖的采访和从中得到的成员统计数据来进行的，但教会成员名册对统计中国新教人数来说并不可靠，因为随着中国城镇化快速发展，信徒从农村流向城市三自或非三自教会，会造成一个信徒在不同教会间被重复计入名额，且名册也无法显示已经离开基督教的人。中国家庭追踪研究（CFPS）2012、2016、2018年的研究数据显示，有许多人加入基督教，但同时一些基督徒也离开了信仰，而这部分的流失在依靠教会成员名册进行的统计中是看不见的。抽样的地理分布恰当与否也会造成数据偏差，比如把温州这个被认为是中国基督徒占比最高的城市排除在样本之外，调查得出的新教估值也可能会降低。
除了人数及趋势分析外，报告中也涉及性别、年龄比例等，2018年中国综合社会调查的数据显示，在受访者中基督徒年龄较大，受教育程度低于中国成年人的平均水平，且大多数（72%）为女性。
就教堂分布情况而言，浙江、安徽、河南的新教教会数量最多，分别占全国的17%、14%和13%，当然因为2013年至今的三改一拆政策，该分布格局或许已经发生变化。天主教堂数量最多的省份是河北省（13%），中国有四分之一的天主教徒生活在河北省，其次是福建省（12%）和浙江省（12%）等沿海地区。
对于中国宗教的整体情况，皮尤认为，中国只有十分之一的人持有宗教信仰，但有很多成年人都参与宗教文化活动或拥有神祇信念，比如扫墓烧纸供奉祖先、相信风水、挑选黄道吉日、佩戴护身符、烧香拜佛、向佛祖、菩萨、神仙或其他神灵许愿等。若将宗教定义扩大到有关灵性、习俗和迷信的范围上，那么宗教在中国的影响要广泛得多。
对于这份报告，耶鲁大学神学院亚洲神学与基督教教授司马懿（Chloë Starr）在接受《今日基督教》采访时表示，“当统计数字显示中国基督徒的人数急剧上升时，一些关于中国‘可能是世界上拥有最多基督徒的国家’的炒作曾经盛行一时，这份皮尤报告有助于平息这类炒作，并对那些习惯以统计数字来评估教会是否‘成功/有影响力’的方式提出质疑，因为统计数字的准确性是无法确定的。”https://fuyintimes.cn/article/index/id/70527
There is not much evidence that Christian growth continued in China after 2010, according to the Pew Research Center.
Although there have been arguments in recent decades to support the rapid development of Christianity in China, Pew’s new research titled “Measuring Religion in China”, which was released on August 30, concludes from a range of data that there is no evidence that Christianity in China is growing after 2010.
"Some scholars and journalists have argued in recent decades that Christianity in China is growing rapidly. Indeed, Christianity flourished after China entered an era of economic reforms and “opening up” to the world in the 1980s. But recent surveys that measure zongjiao affiliation do not offer much evidence that Christian growth continued after 2010," the research said.
“Some media reports and academic papers have suggested the Christian share may be larger, with estimates as high as 7% (100 million) or 9% (130 million) of the total population, including children. No national surveys that measure formal Christian affiliation—by asking people which religion (zongjiao) they identify with—come close to these figures,” claimed Pew.
The analyses are based on the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS), the 2016 China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), the China Labor-force Dynamics Survey (CLDS), the 2018 World Values Survey (WVS), and government data due to the political sensitivity, self-identification, and sampling issues of counting Christians in China.
“According to the CGSS, about 2% of adults (23.2 million) in China self-identified as Christians in 2010, versus 2% (19.9 million) in the 2018 survey—a gap that is not statistically significant.”
“In 2010, 38% of Christians said they engaged in zongjiao (religious) activities at least once a week, while in 2018, 35% said so—a difference that is not statistically significant,” Pew added.
“Between 2009 and 2018, the number of official Protestant clergy (pastors, ministers, and ordained elders) declined slightly from around 37,000 to 36,000.” Pew said. “This trend also appears to conflict with the CCC and TSPM’s emphasis on training Protestant clergy for the official system; around 6,300 students graduated from theological seminaries between 2013 and 2018.”
The official date demonstrates that the year 2018 witnessed the existence of 60,000 legal Protestant venues, “largely unchanged from a total of 58,000 venues in 2009,” without the calculation of “Protestant house churches or authorized meeting points.”
According to the report's analysis of church geographic distribution, there were 17% of Protestant churches in the central province of Henan in 2004 and 13% in the eastern coastal province of Zhejiang.
When it comes to “traits associated with formal Christian affiliation,” Pew claims that adult-identified Christians “are more likely to say religion is very important in their lives” than those who say they believe in Jesus Christ without identifying with Christianity, according to the CFPS. Moreover, they prefer to state that their worship service attendance reaches at least once a week.
Respondents who regard Christianity as their faith are “older and have lower educational attainment than the average Chinese adult,” according to the 2018 CGSS. Women are more than men.
Pew Research: No Clear Evidence that 'Christianity in China Is Growing'
