After the founding of the People's Republic of China, Christianity in the country developed rapidly. The numbers of believers and churches increased greatly. This growth was mainly concentrated in the 1980s and 1990s. The number of converts increased faster than all other periods in history. In 2007, some scholars estimated that there were 60 or 70 million Christians in China.
In a short period of 20 or 30 years, the sharply increasing number of Christians was mainly because of the following reasons.
First, after reform and opening up, society underwent a drastic transformation, bringing sharp changes to the existing social structure. This transformation was not only political and economic but also cultural and rural-based. This transformation was not in tune with people's ideas, and the transformation of cultural and psychological ideas has been obviously slower than the transformation of social structure. In the face of this transformation, people are psychologically uncomfortable and anxious, thus increasing their "uncertainty" and anxiety about the future. People need to find an unchangeable and controllable safe area, which can only exist in religion. This is the inherent demand for Christian growth under the background of social transformation.
Secondly, the lack of balance in religious belief in China provides opportunities for Christianity. After the founding of the People's Republic of China, folk religions were almost wiped out, leaving only Christianity as a viable option. Therefore, Christianity hardly met any competition in the vast rural areas of China.
Thirdly, the original ethical norms and interpersonal relationships in rural areas were destroyed in the social movements of the opening up. For instance, original human ties were gradually replaced by economic demands, thus exposing individuals to society. At this time, people sought stability from Christianity to alleviate the discomfort caused by the collapse of the original order brought about by social changes.
Fourth, the lack of a rural social security safety net exposes individual farmers to greater physical risks. People turned to religion when they were sick or had serious illnesses, leading to the conversion of many. Some scholars have found that there is a correlation between Christian growth and the lack of a social security system.
The fifth is the demand of public culture. The lack of rural public culture draws farmers to new culture, entertainment, and public interaction that is provided by Christianity. Christianity became one of the few institutions providing entertainment in rural areas. The church choir and religious festivals were rare entertainment choices for people living in rural areas during a time when television and other media were not common or were even scarce.
Sixth, from the perspective of Christian doctrine itself, after Christianity entered China, it quickly adjusted its own structure and content, and gradually became a folk religion. It changed from emphasizing social service and social witness to emphasizing miracles and wonders, treating diseases and casting out demons, and gradually changed from an anti-superstitious rational religion to a local superstitious religion. For Christianity, which lacks religion and has few conflicts with local folk religions, it has become a choice without obstacles.
Seventh, from a macro policy point of view, the country's policy of religious freedom will not create policy obstacles for the development of Christianity and people becoming Christian.
It is for the above reasons that the growth of Christianity made a leap forward. However, from the perspective of motivations for conversion, most people who converted to Christianity were driven by their needs. These needs include a social security safety net, cultural opportunities and entertainment, a sense of belonging, and treating diseases, so the conversion for this purpose can only be produced in a specific context.
Secondly, conversion through ones social network is minimal. Perhaps Wenzhou is a remarkable and unique case. The area is a center for finance and local economic development, so the conversion of Christians in Wenzhou was also needs-driven.
The development of Christianity in the 1980s and 1990s was not driven by conversion through family. Most Christians' conversion is obviously needs-driven not because of the environment. Of course, becoming a Christian through family influence still exists, but the proportion of it is too small and does not have a significant impact on the overall growth of Christianity.
After passing through a wavy pattern, the wheel of history began to move towards another road in its own direction. Today's society, as a result of reform and opening-up, can be felt as different from that of the 1980s and 1990s.
With the acceleration of urbanization, the rural population is gradually shifting to cities, and there are many left-behind elderly people and children in rural areas. S the development of the church is under great pressure in rural areas. The lack of young people who represent fresh blood makes the church stagnate. The church has become boring and has decreased in numbers.
On the other hand, the integrated social security in urban and rural areas ensures that the rural population is no longer exposed to previous risks and thus no longer needs to rely on the church. The Church gradually has lost its attractiveness and does not have the advantage of replacing the government’s system of social security.
Thirdly, as other forms of entertainment have become more popular, the countryside is no longer a desert for cultural entertainment, and Christianity has lost its uniqueness in providing cultural entertainment. The entertainment value of Christianity is obviously inferior to secular culture because it is too serious and rigid.
Fourth, more importantly, social relations in rural areas have been rebuilt and the rural economy has greatly improved. With the improvement of the economy, farmers are more capable of dealing with interpersonal interactions. Therefore, the stable community function provided by Christianity gradually loses its uniqueness.
However, for rural areas, the background for the rapid development of Christianity in the 1980s and 1990s no longer exists. Only individual conversions are likely to be the case and it is rare to see a large tide of group conversion again. So are things better in the city?
Obviously so. Looking back at the development of Christianity in the past 40 years, its growth has been primarily in rural areas. In the book Chinese Rural Churches since Reform and Opening-up (Hong Kong Jiandao Publishing House, 1999), Dr. Liang Jialin, a Hong Kong scholar, thinks that rural Christianity is the mainstream of Chinese Christianity.
Obviously, cities are superior to rural areas in social security, recreational life, social system, and structure. Especially after the reform and opening up, priority was given to the development of cities, and construction in urban areas matured. In this context, cities do not have the same background as rural areas, so Christianity has not been the primary place where Christianity has grown and will not be in the future either.
Today, when we see the prosperity of urban churches, we mistakenly think that this provides a picture of the rise of urban churches. However, when we carefully examine these urban churches, we will find that they are still the same rural churches mentioned by Dr. Liang Jialin. They are the same rural churches that moved to cities along with the migrant workers. Churches dominated by urban citizens, intellectuals, and professionally skilled workers are rare and cannot be regarded as the mainstream of Christianity in China.
Today, the development of Christianity no longer has the background, social setting, and public service that it had in the past 80' s and 90' s, which made Christianity stagnant at the folk religious level no longer have advantages. In the past, with the development of social security, culture and public services, there was not the same number of conversions because Christianity no longer provided the advantages that it had in the past.
Looking at today's Christianity as a whole, it is still satisfying to see what was achieved in the 1980s and 1990s without much change in doctrine and theology, and without thinking about the future of its development. It is immersed in the fantasy of what it once was, and cannot face the challenges brought by the changes in the current environment.
If Christianity continues to be satisfied with the past and does not dare to face the challenges brought by the present world to the growth of Christianity, then Christianity can only gradually decline and shrink and inevitably be marginalized.
- Translated by Charlie Li
基督教未来增长压力的观察与思考
建国后，基督教获得了长足发展，信徒人数和教会数量都出现巨大的增长，这种增长模式主要集中在一个时期，那就是八九十年代，那时基督教的增长飞快，皈信人数的增加速度超出了历史上的所有时期。截止到2007年有学者估计中国有基督徒人数六七万（于建嵘: 《中国基督教家庭教会合法化研究》，《战略与管理》2010 年第 3 期。）
在短短的二三十年中，基督教人数获得飞跃增长，这被学者主要归因于以下几个原因。
首先，改革开放之后，社会剧烈转型，打破了原有的社会结构。这种转型不仅仅是政治和经济方面，也包括文化和乡村结构。这种转型与人们的观念并不同步，文化心理观念转型明显慢于社会结构转型。面对这种转型，人们心理上产生不适与焦虑，从而对未来的“不确定”和“风险性”增加。人们需要寻找一个不变的、可以掌控的安全区域，这种安全区域只能存在于宗教中。这是基督教增长在社会转型背景下的内在需求。
其次，是中国宗教信仰的失衡，给基督教提供了机会。建国之后民间宗教几乎消灭殆尽，只剩下基督教一枝独秀，因此基督教在中国广大乡村，几乎没有遇到任何竞争对象。
第三方面，是在改革开放的社会剧变中，农村原有的伦理规范和人际关系被破坏.比如原本的人情逐渐被经济替代，从而将个体暴露在社会中，此时人们到基督教中寻求规范支持，以缓解社会变革带来的原有秩序崩溃带来的不适。
第四方面，是农村社会保障的缺位，让农民个体暴露在疾病风险中.那么到宗教中寻求医治，以及教会作为群体所发挥的社会保障功能，是人们皈依基督教的原因之一。有学者研究发现，基督教增长与社会保障之间存在相关关系（《宗教信仰对农村社会养老保险参与行为的影响分析》《中国农村观察》2015年1月）。
第五就是公共文化的需求。农村公共文化的缺失，让农民到基督教中寻找文化和娱乐，以及公共互动空间。基督教几乎成为农村娱乐文化中不多的机构，教会唱诗和宗教节日的演出，对于那个特定时代，电视等媒体并不普及甚至奇缺的农村来说，是不可多得的娱乐项目。
第六方面，从基督教教义本身来看，基督教进入中国之后，迅速调整自身的结构和内容，逐渐民间宗教化.由强调社会服务和社会见证为外在表现，转变为强调神迹奇事、医病赶鬼等功效，由反迷信的理性宗教，逐渐向本土迷信宗教转变，这对于宗教缺乏又与本土民间宗教冲突极少的基督教来说，成为大家没有障碍的选择。
第七方面，从宏观的政策角度来说，国家的宗教自由政策，让基督教的发展以及人们加入基督教不会产生政策上的障碍。
正是上述原因，让基督教的增长出现了一次飞跃，但从皈依动机上来看，绝大部分皈依基督教的人们，还是需求性皈信。这些需求包括了社会保障、文化娱乐、社会群体归属、医治疾病等因素，因此出这种目的的皈信，只能产生在特定背景下。
其次社会网络皈信，只占据极少数成分，也许温州是个显著且唯一的个例，这还是处于融资与民间经济的发展需求，因此也可以将其皈依于需求性皈信。
在代际传承方面，基督教在八九十年的飞跃发展中，依然没有表现出代际传承的显性因素，大部分基督徒的皈依显然出于需求性因素，而不是成长环境。当然代际传承方面，依然存在，但是代际传承所占比例实在太小，对于基督教大局来说，并不产生显著性影响。
历史的车轮经过一段崎岖不平的山路之后，开始朝着自己的方向走向另一种道路。今天的社会作为改革开放的成果，我们可以感受到与八九十年的不同。
城市化进程加快，农村人口逐渐向城市转移，农村留守老人和儿童居多，这样教会的发展在农村就受到极大压力，代表新鲜血液的年轻人的缺乏，让教会处于停滞状态，萎缩和沉闷几乎成为常态。
另一方面城乡一体的社会保障，让农村中的个体不再暴露在风险中，从而对教会的保障功能不再依赖，教会也就逐渐失去吸引力，丧失了可替代社会保障的优势。
第三方面，智能终端的普及，让农村不再是文化娱乐荒漠，基督教失去了提供文化娱乐功能的唯一性。在娱乐方面，基督教提供的精神产品显然更因为过于严肃和死板而与其它世俗文化相比略逊一筹。
第四方面，更重要的是，农村社会关系已经重建，经济发展已经得到很大的提高，经济的提高，让农民更有能力处理人际之间的互动。因此基督教所提供的的稳定共同体功能逐渐失去唯一性。
然而，对于农村地区来说，基督教那种八九十年代极速发展的背景已经不复存在，等待她的只是个体性皈信，难得再有群体皈依潮的发生。那么在城市是不是就好点了呢？
显然，回顾基督教近四十年的发展史，其规模增长的主要人群是在农村地区，香港学者梁家麟博士在著作《《改革开放以来的中国农村教会》（1999 年香港建道出版社）中认为，农村基督教是中国基督教的主流。
显然，城市在社会保障、娱乐生活、社会体制与结构方面，都优于农村。尤其是改革开放之后，优先发展城市，城市公共建构逐渐成熟。在这样的背景下，城市并不具备农村那样的背景，因此基督教的主要发展区域过去不在城市，将来也不在城市。
今天我们看到城市教会的繁荣，就误以为这是城市教会的兴起，但是仔细考察这些城市教会，我们会发现他们依然是梁家麟博士所说的农村教会，是随着打工者群体转移到城市的农村教会。那种由城市市民、知识分子、专业技能工作者占主导的教会凤毛麟角，并不能作为中国基督教的主流。
今天，基督教的发展已经不再具备过去八九十年代所具有的那种背景，社会设置和公共服务，让停滞于民间宗教层面的基督教不再具备优势。过去那种需求性皈信潮，也随着社会保障、文化的发展、公共服务不断满足人们的需求，从而让基督教不再拥有优势。
纵观今天基督教整体，依然满足于八九十年代的皈信成果，教义和神学没有太大的转变，对现实的发展也缺乏思考，沉浸在曾经基督教规模的幻想中，而不能面对当下环境的变化给基督教发展带来的挑战。
如果基督教继续满足于过去，而不敢面对当下世界给基督教增长带来的挑战，那么基督教只能逐渐没落，萎缩和边缘化必然成为基督教的未来命运。
基督教未来增长压力的观察与思考
After the founding of the People's Republic of China, Christianity in the country developed rapidly. The numbers of believers and churches increased greatly. This growth was mainly concentrated in the 1980s and 1990s. The number of converts increased faster than all other periods in history. In 2007, some scholars estimated that there were 60 or 70 million Christians in China.
In a short period of 20 or 30 years, the sharply increasing number of Christians was mainly because of the following reasons.
First, after reform and opening up, society underwent a drastic transformation, bringing sharp changes to the existing social structure. This transformation was not only political and economic but also cultural and rural-based. This transformation was not in tune with people's ideas, and the transformation of cultural and psychological ideas has been obviously slower than the transformation of social structure. In the face of this transformation, people are psychologically uncomfortable and anxious, thus increasing their "uncertainty" and anxiety about the future. People need to find an unchangeable and controllable safe area, which can only exist in religion. This is the inherent demand for Christian growth under the background of social transformation.
Secondly, the lack of balance in religious belief in China provides opportunities for Christianity. After the founding of the People's Republic of China, folk religions were almost wiped out, leaving only Christianity as a viable option. Therefore, Christianity hardly met any competition in the vast rural areas of China.
Thirdly, the original ethical norms and interpersonal relationships in rural areas were destroyed in the social movements of the opening up. For instance, original human ties were gradually replaced by economic demands, thus exposing individuals to society. At this time, people sought stability from Christianity to alleviate the discomfort caused by the collapse of the original order brought about by social changes.
Fourth, the lack of a rural social security safety net exposes individual farmers to greater physical risks. People turned to religion when they were sick or had serious illnesses, leading to the conversion of many. Some scholars have found that there is a correlation between Christian growth and the lack of a social security system.
The fifth is the demand of public culture. The lack of rural public culture draws farmers to new culture, entertainment, and public interaction that is provided by Christianity. Christianity became one of the few institutions providing entertainment in rural areas. The church choir and religious festivals were rare entertainment choices for people living in rural areas during a time when television and other media were not common or were even scarce.
Sixth, from the perspective of Christian doctrine itself, after Christianity entered China, it quickly adjusted its own structure and content, and gradually became a folk religion. It changed from emphasizing social service and social witness to emphasizing miracles and wonders, treating diseases and casting out demons, and gradually changed from an anti-superstitious rational religion to a local superstitious religion. For Christianity, which lacks religion and has few conflicts with local folk religions, it has become a choice without obstacles.
Seventh, from a macro policy point of view, the country's policy of religious freedom will not create policy obstacles for the development of Christianity and people becoming Christian.
It is for the above reasons that the growth of Christianity made a leap forward. However, from the perspective of motivations for conversion, most people who converted to Christianity were driven by their needs. These needs include a social security safety net, cultural opportunities and entertainment, a sense of belonging, and treating diseases, so the conversion for this purpose can only be produced in a specific context.
Secondly, conversion through ones social network is minimal. Perhaps Wenzhou is a remarkable and unique case. The area is a center for finance and local economic development, so the conversion of Christians in Wenzhou was also needs-driven.
The development of Christianity in the 1980s and 1990s was not driven by conversion through family. Most Christians' conversion is obviously needs-driven not because of the environment. Of course, becoming a Christian through family influence still exists, but the proportion of it is too small and does not have a significant impact on the overall growth of Christianity.
After passing through a wavy pattern, the wheel of history began to move towards another road in its own direction. Today's society, as a result of reform and opening-up, can be felt as different from that of the 1980s and 1990s.
With the acceleration of urbanization, the rural population is gradually shifting to cities, and there are many left-behind elderly people and children in rural areas. S the development of the church is under great pressure in rural areas. The lack of young people who represent fresh blood makes the church stagnate. The church has become boring and has decreased in numbers.
On the other hand, the integrated social security in urban and rural areas ensures that the rural population is no longer exposed to previous risks and thus no longer needs to rely on the church. The Church gradually has lost its attractiveness and does not have the advantage of replacing the government’s system of social security.
Thirdly, as other forms of entertainment have become more popular, the countryside is no longer a desert for cultural entertainment, and Christianity has lost its uniqueness in providing cultural entertainment. The entertainment value of Christianity is obviously inferior to secular culture because it is too serious and rigid.
Fourth, more importantly, social relations in rural areas have been rebuilt and the rural economy has greatly improved. With the improvement of the economy, farmers are more capable of dealing with interpersonal interactions. Therefore, the stable community function provided by Christianity gradually loses its uniqueness.
However, for rural areas, the background for the rapid development of Christianity in the 1980s and 1990s no longer exists. Only individual conversions are likely to be the case and it is rare to see a large tide of group conversion again. So are things better in the city?
Obviously so. Looking back at the development of Christianity in the past 40 years, its growth has been primarily in rural areas. In the book Chinese Rural Churches since Reform and Opening-up (Hong Kong Jiandao Publishing House, 1999), Dr. Liang Jialin, a Hong Kong scholar, thinks that rural Christianity is the mainstream of Chinese Christianity.
Obviously, cities are superior to rural areas in social security, recreational life, social system, and structure. Especially after the reform and opening up, priority was given to the development of cities, and construction in urban areas matured. In this context, cities do not have the same background as rural areas, so Christianity has not been the primary place where Christianity has grown and will not be in the future either.
Today, when we see the prosperity of urban churches, we mistakenly think that this provides a picture of the rise of urban churches. However, when we carefully examine these urban churches, we will find that they are still the same rural churches mentioned by Dr. Liang Jialin. They are the same rural churches that moved to cities along with the migrant workers. Churches dominated by urban citizens, intellectuals, and professionally skilled workers are rare and cannot be regarded as the mainstream of Christianity in China.
Today, the development of Christianity no longer has the background, social setting, and public service that it had in the past 80' s and 90' s, which made Christianity stagnant at the folk religious level no longer have advantages. In the past, with the development of social security, culture and public services, there was not the same number of conversions because Christianity no longer provided the advantages that it had in the past.
Looking at today's Christianity as a whole, it is still satisfying to see what was achieved in the 1980s and 1990s without much change in doctrine and theology, and without thinking about the future of its development. It is immersed in the fantasy of what it once was, and cannot face the challenges brought by the changes in the current environment.
If Christianity continues to be satisfied with the past and does not dare to face the challenges brought by the present world to the growth of Christianity, then Christianity can only gradually decline and shrink and inevitably be marginalized.
- Translated by Charlie Li
Observation, Thoughts on Pressures for the Future Growth of Christianity
