Compared to the robust growth period from 1979 to 2009, Christianity in China over the past decade has apparently entered a stagnation or bottleneck phase since 2010.
According to a December 2023 issue by Pew, the renowned Christian research institution, after experiencing rapid growth in the 1980s and 1990s, the number of Chinese Christians has suspectedly stopped growing in the past decade. The report estimates the proportion of Chinese Christians in recent years, indicating that the proportion was around 2% between 2010 and 2018. Due to the pandemic, the survey coverage in 2021 was reduced compared to previous years, and the proportion was estimated to be 1%.
While this survey has sparked diverse opinions, many grassroots pastors and church workers have indeed felt the fatigue and difficulties in the growth and development of the Chinese church over the past decade.
Has Christianity in China truly entered stagnation? Does Chinese Christianity still possess latent vitality that could potentially seize new opportunities and experience a new revival in the future?
Retracing the rough outline of Protestantism in China over the past 200 years
To envision the future, it is necessary to retrace history.
Since the arrival of Robert Morrison in China in 1807, Protestantism in China has undergone significant changes over the past 200 years, often resembling a roller coaster ride, constantly experiencing momentous changes brought by the times.
This is vastly different from Western churches during the same period, primarily due to the vastly different historical and social backgrounds faced by Western churches and Chinese churches over the past 200 years, leading to differences in key themes between the two.
Since gradually entering the modern era in the 16th century, the situation in the post-Christendom and post-denominational eras has already stabilized in the West. The greatest contradiction between modernity and antiquity in the Christian realm is the conflict between classical doctrines and the changing times, centered on the debate between fundamentalists and liberals, as well as the tension between Christianity and secularization.
Since China passively entered the modern era in the mid-19th century, the core of the debate between modernity and antiquity over the past 200 years has been how to break through various negative burdens while retaining cultural identity, transforming from an ancient civilization into a modern society. This primary contradiction has also led China to experience countless twists and turns in modern times. To describe it concisely and vividly, it is similar to the "Historical Three Gorges View" proposed by the renowned historian Te-Kong Tong, who argues that Chinese history must inevitably undergo a long transition period between the transformation of two social forms.
Therefore, Chinese society has undergone many dramatic changes and throes brought by the times in the past 200 years, and Protestantism, which took root in China during the same period, has also experienced several significant transformations due to internal and external turmoil and contradictions.
Looking back at history, the period from 1807 to 1900 was the early establishment of churches, characterized by conflicts between missionaries and local co-workers. The historical context revolved around the establishment of indigenous Chinese churches. From 1900 to the 1950s, despite the vast distance, the local churches in China also experienced the conflict between liberalism and fundamentalism brought by Western churches, leading to two different theological positions and church lineages in China. From 1950 to 1979, the church underwent a whole period of persecution, with many ordinary unnamed Christians disseminating the faith.
The period from 1979 to 2009 can be characterized as a "vigorous growth period," experiencing the revival and rise of rural and urban churches and the resulting attempt to make house churches public starting in 2008.
Significant growth periods and the reasons behind Chinese Christianity since 1979
The "vigorous growth" of Chinese Christianity can be clearly and quickly seen from the changes in officially announced figures:
In 1949, there were 700,000 Christians in China, accounting for 0.17% of the total population (based on a total population of 400 million).
In 1982, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China issued Document No. 19, titled "Basic Views and Policies on Religious Issues in China’s Socialist Period," stating that there were approximately 3 million Christians and 3 million Catholics.
"The Freedom of Religious Belief in China," released by the State Council Information Office in 1997, indicated that there were 10 million Christians in China, accounting for approximately 0.83% of the total population (based on a total population of 1.2 billion).
According to the introductions of Christianity on the official website of the central government in 2005, "the number of Christians in China reached 16 million, with over 50,000 churches and activity sites, nearly 3,000 pastors, 15,000 clergy members, and nearly 110,000 volunteers." In 2005, China’s total population was 1.307 billion, and the proportion of Christians accounted for approximately 1.2% of the total population.
In 2010, the Institute of World Religions of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released a national survey report on Christianity, estimating that approximately 1.8% of China’s population, or about 230.5 million people, are Christians.
From 700,000 to 230.5 million, the growth factor is approximately 33, while the growth factor of China’s population during the same period, from 400 million to approximately 1.33 billion, is approximately 3.3. The former is 10 times that of the latter. There are various opinions on the number of Chinese Christians. If compared with data from some other international institutions, the growth rate is even more significant.
Why did the number of Chinese Christians experience such vigorous growth during these 30 years? Different research institutions have analyzed this from different perspectives. Among them, a representative domestic analysis of the rapid development of Christianity after the Reform and Opening-up is the "Report on Chinese Religious Survey (2015)" published by Renmin University of China, stating: "Among the five major religions, Christianity is the one that best adapts to the contemporary Chinese social environment, which may be the fundamental reason for its significant development in the past 30 years."
During these 30 years, it is clear that the church’s growth experienced or seized several significant revival periods, which can also be said to be the result of the church meeting the needs of the times:
1979-1990—The era of gatherings: growth for rural churches
Meeting the demand for gatherings was sufficient. Growth could be achieved wherever there were gatherings. This historical background was a result of the immense demand for religious belief after religious needs were extremely suppressed during the decades of persecution from 1950 to 1979.
1990 to 2009 —The era of venue availability: establishment of urban churches
During this time, the demand for gatherings was no longer high, but rather the need for venues soared. Churches that could provide stable meeting venues saw growth, leading to the emergence of numerous new urban churches.
An analysis of the current needs of Chinese churches through changes since 2010
From 1979 to 2009, Chinese Christianity experienced rapid growth and accumulation, with a tenfold increase in both the number of believers and churches. However, after 2010, it has been difficult to observe a vibrant growth trend based solely on the external numbers of believers and churches.
According to Pew in August and December 2023, Christianity flourished in China after the economic reforms and opening up to the world in the 1980s. However, recent survey reports on religious affiliation do not provide much evidence of continued growth after 2010.
Despite this, since 2010, while not experiencing widespread growth as before, some churches have still grasped the needs and opportunities of the times to experience growth. These churches capitalized on two periods of dividends:
2010-2019—The era of basic pastoral care dividends
Churches that met the demand for basic pastoral care, such as providing daily pastoral care, discipleship training, or small group activities, experienced growth. This was a time when believers no longer lacked meeting venues but instead sought inner growth and learned how to live out their faith in all aspects of life.
2019-2023—The era of online gathering dividends
The pandemic-driven surge in demand for online gatherings saw growth for churches that could fulfill believers’ needs for gatherings and pastoral care online. This was a time when physical gatherings became difficult due to the COVID-19 pandemic and other reasons.
More than a decade has passed since the period of vibrant growth. However, the growth of some churches during 2010-2024 demonstrates that even after the peak growth period, churches can still achieve growth by sensitively responding to the needs of the times.
We can still find clues from the numerical comparison. According to the 2018 White Paper "China’s Policies and Practices on Safeguarding Freedom of Religious Belief," there are over 38 million Christian believers and approximately 57,000 religious clergymen. Based on these figures, one grassroots religious cleric is responsible for the pastoral care of about 667 believers. If we use the official data from 2014, which estimates the number of Christian believers in China between 23 million and 40 million, accounting for 1.7% to 2.9% of the total population. Calculating with 40 million Christians and 60,000 grassroots pastors yields similar results, where each pastor is tasked with shepherding approximately 667 believers. Even if the data is halved due to various reasons, a grassroots pastor still has to shoulder the pastoral care of at least 400-500 people. This scale of 400-500 members is considered a medium-sized church in Western Christianity. In other words, on average, a pastor needs to provide pastoral care and meet the service demands of no less than a medium-sized church.
It can be seen that from 1979 to 2009, the Chinese church experienced a period of robust growth, resulting in a large number of new-generation Christians (the term "new generation" refers to those who grew up in Christian families). This also fostered significant pastoral care needs among these believers. In contrast, the proportion of pastors is relatively low, and the Chinese church has undergone various epochal changes, leading to limited spiritual inheritance and accumulation. Therefore, satisfying this demand poses a significant challenge.
The current state of Chinese Christianity resembles a vast but shallow beach. Jesus once compared building a house on rock versus sand to illustrate the differences in outcomes brought by the strength of foundations: "Therefore everyone who hears these words of mine and puts them into practice is like a wise man who built his house on the rock. The rain came down, the streams rose, and the winds blew and beat against that house, yet it did not fall because it had its foundation on the rock. But everyone who hears these words of mine and does not put them into practice is like a foolish man who built his house on sand. The rain came down, the streams rose, and the winds blew and beat against that house, and it fell with a great crash." (Mathew 7: 24-27)
Although it seems that Chinese Christianity has passed its peak growth period, it still faces immense demands in terms of both depth and breadth:
Depth issues: The re-pastoral care needs of tens of millions of Christians, accounting for at least 2% of China’s population accumulated from 1979 to 2009, include demands for their spiritual growth, the inheritance of faith in their families and the next generation, as well as their needs in the workplace and daily life.
Breadth issues: Being in an environment where 98% of the population is non-Christian means that the breadth of outreach is still very low. Increasing the outreach by even 1 percentage point represents a significant number. In a society where Christian culture is on the margins, extending outreach requires extensive cultivation, which is now different from the era of the 1970s and 1990s. It cannot rely solely on spreading the gospel through word of mouth to attract people. It requires deeper cultivation and pastoral care, thus implying greater pastoral care needs.
It can be seen that the current needs of the Chinese church are different from those during the previous periods of gathering and venue dividends. The greatest need now is for intensive or refined pastoral care.
Where is the future potential and dividend period for the Chinese churches?
An increasing number of churches have realized this need. Therefore, many related pastoral care courses, resources, and system reconstructions have emerged in the past decade, such as discipleship training, small-group pastoral care, and family courses. These are attempts to provide more refined pastoral care based on the needs of different groups, all representing intensive pastoral care.
A pastor in East China said that his investigation found that churches that implemented discipleship training and small-group pastoral care had experienced growth in the past decade. He believes that this trend will continue for at least 5-10 years.
A pastor in South China talked about his pastoral philosophy: pastoral ministry is about fostering families. The essence of fostering a church is to care for the families, and the core of the church is the families.
A pastor in North China observed that pastoral care for families was becoming increasingly important, representing a new trend.
The consensus among pastors in various regions is that churches today cannot over-prioritize growth in size and quantity as they did in the past, but instead need to focus more on quality and internal development.
Not long ago, I learned from a sister who has served in churches across different denominations and theological backgrounds, "Now is the era where wherever there is pastoral care, there are groups of believers." This statement aptly captures the core needs of believers today, who desire more refined and in-depth pastoral care. Those who strive to fulfill these needs will experience growth.
The primary responses to this current demand include:
Providing systematic pastoral care for the entire congregation;
Tailoring refined pastoral care based on specific groups (e.g., singles, families, professionals);
Assisting in the faith inheritance of the next generation;
Training and developing young pastoral staff;
Meeting the demand for social services.
The demand for social services is showing an increasing trend, including the urgency of mental health issues, the growing elderly population, and the need for cultural activities. "Social services are like a deep-water pier for the church," said a Christian engaged in social charity. He has observed that the contemporary social environment has undergone significant changes, making it more difficult to bring people to churches than before. Therefore, the key to a paradigm shift is for the church to go out into the community.
It is evident that churches need to identify and capitalize on the dividend period of meeting the needs of the times or the hearts of people to bring about a new round of growth. The most critical need at present is the demand for in-depth pastoral care and social services.
Stagnation or reorganization?
Rather than saying that the Chinese church has entered a stagnation or bottleneck period since 2010, I tend to believe it has entered a period of reorganization. However, many within the church are still unaware of this, so many will continue to rely on past growth models or make only passive adjustments to address issues like slow growth or others. A clearer understanding of the current stage and historical tasks can help us find and explore coping strategies more effectively.
From 1979 to 2009, the Chinese church experienced robust growth under God’s grace. After 2010, many shortcomings of the Chinese church became apparent, including in pastoral care, theological education, evangelism, integration into society, and social services. Now is a good time for reorganization.
Elijah, a prophet highly favored by God, displayed great miracles by praying for drought and rain, confronting 450 false prophets, and greatly manifesting God’s glory on Mount Carmel. He even brought fire and water down from heaven to accomplish awe-inspiring works. However, after all this, he was persecuted by Queen Jezebel and fled to the wilderness, losing hope and even seeking death under a broom tree. Facing Elijah sleeping under the broom tree, God’s angel prepared a jar of water and cakes made of roasted grain for him. After waking him up, Elijah ate and drank, saying, "Get up and eat, for the journey is too much for you." (1 Kings 19:7) Later, after re-experiencing God, he was given a new mission.
This is analogous to the current situation of the Chinese church. From 1979 to 2009, it experienced a remarkable growth miracle that attracted worldwide attention. Now is our time for reorganization, "for the journey is too much."
At present, the Chinese churches need to undergo reorganization in many aspects, including pastoral care, theological education, evangelism, and integration into modern society. We believe that God’s grace and protection are present in the current Chinese church, and we hope that after this period, the church will, like Elijah, re-experience God and respond to His new mission.
- Translated by Charlie Li
和1979至2009这四十年的蓬勃增长期相比，中国基督教自2010年至今这10多年的情况明显可以说是陷入到停滞期或者瓶颈期。
国际著名基督教调查机构皮尤2023年12月的报告称，中国基督徒的人口数在20世纪80、90年代经历了快速增长后，最近的10多年来，中国基督徒数量疑似停止增长。该报告列出近年来中国基督徒人数比例的估计，从2010-2018之间的比例大约在2%左右，2019之后因为疫情所以统计的区域减少，到2021年的统计为1%。
虽然该调查引发不同的意见，但身处牧会现场的不少基层牧者和同工的确感受到最近10多年中国教会在增长和发展上的乏力和困顿。
到底中国基督教是否真正意义上已经进入了停滞期？中国基督教是否仍然有潜藏的活力，使之能够在未来的时代中有可能抓住新一轮的机会、经历新的红利期呢？
中国基督新教过去200多年的大致脉络回溯
若想展望未来，必然需要回溯历史。
中国新教自1807年马礼逊入华后，200年的经历可谓变动很大，看轨迹常常如同坐过山车一般，可谓一直在经历时代带来的巨变。
这和同时期的西方教会大为不同，而这主要取决于西方教会和中国教会这200年各自所面临的时代与社会背景大为不同，由此导致两者在关键主题上的差别。
西方自16世纪逐步进入近代时期后，后基督教王国和后宗派时代的局面早已稳定形成，近代与古代之争在基督教领域表现最大的矛盾即是古典教义和时代变迁，围绕此展开的即基要派和自由派之争，以及基督教和世俗化之间的张力。
中国自19世纪中叶被动进入近代时期后，近200年来一直在经历的近代和古代之争的核心是如何突破曾经各种负面的包袱又保留自己的文化认同，使自己从古文明进入到现代社会。这一主要矛盾也使中国在近现代经历了无数的百折千回。以简洁而形象的一副图景描述的话，仿佛著名历史学家唐德刚提出的“历史三峡观”一般，认为中国历史在前后两个社会形态的转换间必然会经历一个漫长的转型期。
因此，过去近200年中国社会经历了许多时代带来的剧变和阵痛，而同时期入华并扎根生长的基督新教也是如此。中国基督教因为内外部的急转和矛盾，经历几次大的巨变。
回溯历史，1807至1900年主要是初期建立教会期，传教士和本土同工的矛盾是核心之一，历史的脉络是建立起中国本土的教会；1900-1950年代，虽然远隔万里，中国本土教会亦经历欧美教会带来的自由派和基要派的矛盾，由此也导致中国二种不同神学立场带来的教会脉络；1950-1979年，教会全面经历逼迫期，许多普通没有留下姓名的基督徒留下了信仰的火种。
1979年至2009年，可以用“蓬勃增长期”来概括其特点，先后经历了农村教会复兴、城市教会兴起，以及由此孕育了2008开始的家庭教会公开化尝试。
1979年中国基督教几次大的红利期及其原因分析
从官方公布的数字变化上，就可清晰快速地看出中国基督教的"蓬勃增长"：
1949 年中国有70万基督徒，占全国总人口的0.17%（按总人口4 亿计）；
1982 年中共 中央颁布题为《关于我国社会主义时期宗教问题的基本观点和基本政策》的19 号文件，称当时有大约 300 万基督徒和300 万天主教徒；
1997年国务院新闻办公室发布的《中国的宗教信仰自由》表明中国有1000万基督徒，约占总人口的0.83%（按总人口12亿计）；
据2005年中央政府门户网站有关“基督教”的介绍，当时“我国信仰基督教的人数达1600万，教堂及活动点总数超过5万个，有近3000名牧师，1.5万名教职人员和近11万名义工。”2005年我国总人口为13.07亿，按此计算，基督徒占总人口的比例约为1.2%。
2010年中国社会科学院世界宗教研究所发布全国性基督教专项调查数据，认为大约中国人口的1.8%，也即约2305万人是基督徒（中国社会科学院世界宗教研究所课题组，2010）。
——从70万到2305万，增长的倍数大约是33，同时期中国人口的增长笔数从4亿到大约13.3亿，增长的倍数大约是3.3。前者是后者的10倍。当然，对于中国基督徒的数字，有不少说法。若以其他一些国际机构的数据对比，则得出来的增长比率是更明显的。
为何这30年间，中国基督徒的数字呈如此蓬勃性增长的状态？对此，不同的研究机构有不同角度的分析。其中国内较有代表性的关于基督教在改革开放后发展迅速的原因分析是中国人民大学发布的《中国宗教调查报告（2015）》，其中说的是：“在五大宗教中，基督教是与当代中国社会环境适应得最好的宗教，这可能是基督教近30年来取得长足发展的根本原因。”
这30年间可以清楚地看到教会增长经历了或者说抓住了几个大的红利期，也可以说其实是教会满足了当时的需求而带来的增长：
1979-1990年
有聚会就行——农村教会增长期
满足聚会的需求即可，只要哪里有聚会就能有增长。这一时代背景是经历了1950-1979年几十年逼迫期间宗教需求被极端压制后，人心对于宗教信仰渴慕带来的巨大需求。
1900-2009年
有场所就行——城市教会建立期
这一阶段聚会的需求已经不那么稀缺，转而是对场所的需求，只要能满足有稳定的聚会场所，就能有增长，由此这一阶段也生长出不少新的城市教会。
透过看2010年后至今的变化分析中国教会当下的需求
1979年至2009年，可以说中国基督教经历了迅速的原始成长和积累期，在信众人数和教会数字上都经历了数十倍的增长。但2010年后，从外在人数和教会增长的数字上很难看到“蓬勃增长”的势头。
皮尤透过2023年8月和12月的2个调查给出的结论是：基督教在20世纪80年代中国进入经济改革和向世界“开放”的时代后蓬勃发展，但最近关于宗教归属的调查数据并没有提供太多证据能表明基督教在 2010 年之后仍在持续增长。
但即使如此，回顾2010至今，虽然没有经历如之前普遍性的增长，但仍有教会抓住时代的需求和机会，经历增长。而在这段时期，经历增长的教会其实是抓住了2个红利期：
2010-2019年 基础牧养红利期
满足基础牧养的需求，凡是尝试做好日常牧养、门训或小组的需求的教会就会经历增长，这一时代背景就是信众在聚会和场所上不再稀缺，反而是内在的成长，以及如何在生活各方面活出信仰成为巨大的需求。
2019-2023年 网络聚会红利期
疫情期间激增的网络聚会的需求，这一时代背景是新冠疫情等原因带来实地聚会的艰难，凡是能透过网络来满足信众聚会和牧养需求的教会就会经历增长。
对比蓬勃增长期，已经有十多年过去。同时，2010-2024年见一些实现增长的教会也可以让我们看到其实即使已经过去了蓬勃增长期，但如果能够敏锐得察觉到时代的需求进行回应，仍旧可以实现增长。
我们仍然可以从数字对比上可以寻找到一些线索。根据《中国保障宗教信仰自由的政策和实践》白皮书数据显示，基督教信徒3800多万人，宗教教职人员约5.7万人。若以官方2014年给出的数据，目前中国基督教信徒人数在2300万至4000万之间，约占我国总人口的1.7%—2.9%来说，按照4000万基督徒和6万基层牧者计算，也是一个牧者大约要牧养667位信徒。即使数据因为各种原因按照折半计算，一位基层牧者肩膀上所要负担的牧养人数也要至少有400-500人左右。400-500人的规模，其实在西方基督教看来，已经是一个中型规模的教会了。也就是说平均下来，一个牧者需要承担起的牧养和服事是不少于一个中型教会的需求。
由此可以看出，1979-2009年中国教会在蓬勃增长期沉淀了大批新生的基督徒（新生一词针对在基督徒家庭中生长起来的意思），由此也孕育了这些信徒巨大的牧养需求。对比而言，牧者群体的数字比例实在是不高，加上中国教会经历各种时代巨变导致其属灵传承和沉淀也很少，因此这一需求的满足度上是巨大的挑战。
中国基督教当下的面貌就好像一个很广大而浅显的水滩。耶稣曾以在磐石和沙土上盖房子的对比来说到根基的薄厚带来的不同结果：“所以，凡听见我这话就去行的，好比一个聪明人，把房子盖在磐石上；雨淋，水冲，风吹，撞着那房子，房子总不倒塌，因为根基立在磐石上。凡听见我这话不去行的，好比一个无知的人，把房子盖在沙土上；雨淋，水冲，风吹，撞着那房子，房子就倒塌了，并且倒塌得很大。”
虽然表面看上去中国基督教已经过了蓬勃增长期，但当下中国基督教在深度和广度上仍旧面临着巨大的需求：
深度的问题：1979-2009年积累下来的中国人口至少2%即几千万基督徒的再牧养的需求，这包括对他们自身信仰成长的需求、自身家庭和下一代传承的需求、自身在职场和生活中的需求等等。
广度的问题：身处98%非基督徒的环境意味着广度仍旧很低，增长1个百分点也意味着数量的规模并不小，而在一个基督教文化处于边缘的社会环境中，广度的延伸其实需要大量的开垦，而现在这个阶段已经和1979-1990年代那个时代不一样了，它不是只靠口传福音等就能吸引人来，需要更深度的耕耘和牧养，由此也意味着更多的牧养需求。
由此，可以看到，和之前经历过的聚会红利期、场所红利期的需求不一样的是，当下中国教会亟需意识到，最大的需求其实是巨大的深度牧养，或者说精细牧养需求。
中国教会未来的潜力源和红利期在哪儿？
其实已经有愈来愈多的教会意识到这一需求，因此近十年来已经衍生出许多相关的牧养课程、资源与体系重构，比如门徒培训、小组牧养、家庭课程等，这些都是尝试根据人群需求进行比之前普通牧养更为精细化的牧养，而这些都是深度牧养的表现。
华东一位牧者说，他调查发现过去十年是哪个教会已做好门训和小组，哪个教会就能经历增长，他认为这个趋势至少仍旧会延续5-10年。
华南一位牧者谈到牧养理念：牧会就是牧家，牧养教会的本质就是牧养家庭，教会的核心就是家。
华北一位牧者看到：牧养家庭正变得前所未有的重要，这是新的一个趋势。
多个地区不同牧者的共识包括：当下教会不能再和过去那样过度追求规模和数量的增长，而是需要更加重视质量和内在。
不久前，笔者听到一位辗转在不同宗派和神学背景的教会的姊妹说过这样一句话：“现在是一个哪里有牧养，哪里就有群羊的时代。”它一语中的，说出当下信众核心的需求，希望得到更为精细和深度的牧养——而谁能够去努力满足，谁就会经历增长。
而能够对当下这一需求的回应主要包括：
1. 为整体会众提供体系性牧养
2. 根据人群定制精细化牧养（如单身、家庭、职场）
3. 帮助下一代的信仰传承
4. 对年轻教牧同工的培养提升
5.社会服务的需求。
社会服务的需求呈现增长的趋势，比如心理健康的紧迫、养老群体的增加等、文化生活的需求等。“社会服务就好像教会的一个深水码头”，一位从事社会慈善的基督徒如此说，他已经看到当下时代环境已经发生了巨大的变化，把人带到教会已经不如以前容易，既然如此那么教会要走到人群之中则是模式转变的关键。
由此可见，教会需要寻找和跟上时代需求或者人心需求的红利期，才能带来新一轮的增长。而当下最核心的需求就是深度牧养的需求和社会服务的需求。
停滞期or重整期？
比起说中国教会自2010年之后开始步入停滞期或者瓶颈期，笔者更愿意认为：中国教会其实已经步入重整期。只是很多身处其中的人还未意识到这一点，所以不少人仍旧是使用过去的增长模式，或者只是被动地做一些局部的调试，以缓解遇到的增长缓慢或其他各种问题。但更为清醒地判断当下的阶段和历史任务，可以帮助我们更清晰地寻找和探索应对方式。
1979-2009年中国教会在上帝的恩典下，经历蓬勃增长。2010年后，中国教会的很多短板已经暴露，不管是牧养上、神学教育上、宣教上、融入社会、服务社会等方面；而现在其实是一个很好的重整期。
以利亚是上帝重用的一个先知。他祷告天闭塞不下雨和祷告天开降雨，他对决450位假先知显示伟大奇迹，可谓在迦密山顶大显上帝荣耀，甚至从天上取下火来，取下水来，做出来惊天动地的大事工，但当这一切之后，他被王后耶洗别追杀而被迫去旷野逃命，因失去盼望甚至来到一棵罗腾树下坐在那里求死。面对躺在罗腾树下睡着的以利亚,耶和华的使者给他预备了一瓶水与炭火烧的饼，拍他醒来他就吃了喝了，说：“起来吃吧。因为你当走的路甚远。”并且，之后让他重新经历上帝后，给予他新的使命。
这就仿佛今天的中国教会一般，1979-2009年经历过举世瞩目的增长奇迹，而如今是我们重整的时期，“因为你当走的路甚远”。
当下，中国教会需要经历牧养的重整、神学教育的重整、宣教的重整和融入现代公共社会的重整等众多方面。相信上帝的恩典和保守在当下的中国教会同在，盼望度过这个期间的中国教会会如同以利亚一样，再度经历上帝、回应上帝新的使命。
角声| 停滞期or重整期？ 中国基督教未来的潜力源和红利期在哪儿？
Compared to the robust growth period from 1979 to 2009, Christianity in China over the past decade has apparently entered a stagnation or bottleneck phase since 2010.
According to a December 2023 issue by Pew, the renowned Christian research institution, after experiencing rapid growth in the 1980s and 1990s, the number of Chinese Christians has suspectedly stopped growing in the past decade. The report estimates the proportion of Chinese Christians in recent years, indicating that the proportion was around 2% between 2010 and 2018. Due to the pandemic, the survey coverage in 2021 was reduced compared to previous years, and the proportion was estimated to be 1%.
While this survey has sparked diverse opinions, many grassroots pastors and church workers have indeed felt the fatigue and difficulties in the growth and development of the Chinese church over the past decade.
Has Christianity in China truly entered stagnation? Does Chinese Christianity still possess latent vitality that could potentially seize new opportunities and experience a new revival in the future?
Retracing the rough outline of Protestantism in China over the past 200 years
To envision the future, it is necessary to retrace history.
Since the arrival of Robert Morrison in China in 1807, Protestantism in China has undergone significant changes over the past 200 years, often resembling a roller coaster ride, constantly experiencing momentous changes brought by the times.
This is vastly different from Western churches during the same period, primarily due to the vastly different historical and social backgrounds faced by Western churches and Chinese churches over the past 200 years, leading to differences in key themes between the two.
Since gradually entering the modern era in the 16th century, the situation in the post-Christendom and post-denominational eras has already stabilized in the West. The greatest contradiction between modernity and antiquity in the Christian realm is the conflict between classical doctrines and the changing times, centered on the debate between fundamentalists and liberals, as well as the tension between Christianity and secularization.
Since China passively entered the modern era in the mid-19th century, the core of the debate between modernity and antiquity over the past 200 years has been how to break through various negative burdens while retaining cultural identity, transforming from an ancient civilization into a modern society. This primary contradiction has also led China to experience countless twists and turns in modern times. To describe it concisely and vividly, it is similar to the "Historical Three Gorges View" proposed by the renowned historian Te-Kong Tong, who argues that Chinese history must inevitably undergo a long transition period between the transformation of two social forms.
Therefore, Chinese society has undergone many dramatic changes and throes brought by the times in the past 200 years, and Protestantism, which took root in China during the same period, has also experienced several significant transformations due to internal and external turmoil and contradictions.
Looking back at history, the period from 1807 to 1900 was the early establishment of churches, characterized by conflicts between missionaries and local co-workers. The historical context revolved around the establishment of indigenous Chinese churches. From 1900 to the 1950s, despite the vast distance, the local churches in China also experienced the conflict between liberalism and fundamentalism brought by Western churches, leading to two different theological positions and church lineages in China. From 1950 to 1979, the church underwent a whole period of persecution, with many ordinary unnamed Christians disseminating the faith.
The period from 1979 to 2009 can be characterized as a "vigorous growth period," experiencing the revival and rise of rural and urban churches and the resulting attempt to make house churches public starting in 2008.
Significant growth periods and the reasons behind Chinese Christianity since 1979
The "vigorous growth" of Chinese Christianity can be clearly and quickly seen from the changes in officially announced figures:
In 1949, there were 700,000 Christians in China, accounting for 0.17% of the total population (based on a total population of 400 million).
In 1982, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China issued Document No. 19, titled "Basic Views and Policies on Religious Issues in China’s Socialist Period," stating that there were approximately 3 million Christians and 3 million Catholics.
"The Freedom of Religious Belief in China," released by the State Council Information Office in 1997, indicated that there were 10 million Christians in China, accounting for approximately 0.83% of the total population (based on a total population of 1.2 billion).
According to the introductions of Christianity on the official website of the central government in 2005, "the number of Christians in China reached 16 million, with over 50,000 churches and activity sites, nearly 3,000 pastors, 15,000 clergy members, and nearly 110,000 volunteers." In 2005, China’s total population was 1.307 billion, and the proportion of Christians accounted for approximately 1.2% of the total population.
In 2010, the Institute of World Religions of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released a national survey report on Christianity, estimating that approximately 1.8% of China’s population, or about 230.5 million people, are Christians.
From 700,000 to 230.5 million, the growth factor is approximately 33, while the growth factor of China’s population during the same period, from 400 million to approximately 1.33 billion, is approximately 3.3. The former is 10 times that of the latter. There are various opinions on the number of Chinese Christians. If compared with data from some other international institutions, the growth rate is even more significant.
Why did the number of Chinese Christians experience such vigorous growth during these 30 years? Different research institutions have analyzed this from different perspectives. Among them, a representative domestic analysis of the rapid development of Christianity after the Reform and Opening-up is the "Report on Chinese Religious Survey (2015)" published by Renmin University of China, stating: "Among the five major religions, Christianity is the one that best adapts to the contemporary Chinese social environment, which may be the fundamental reason for its significant development in the past 30 years."
During these 30 years, it is clear that the church’s growth experienced or seized several significant revival periods, which can also be said to be the result of the church meeting the needs of the times:
1979-1990—The era of gatherings: growth for rural churches
Meeting the demand for gatherings was sufficient. Growth could be achieved wherever there were gatherings. This historical background was a result of the immense demand for religious belief after religious needs were extremely suppressed during the decades of persecution from 1950 to 1979.
1990 to 2009 —The era of venue availability: establishment of urban churches
During this time, the demand for gatherings was no longer high, but rather the need for venues soared. Churches that could provide stable meeting venues saw growth, leading to the emergence of numerous new urban churches.
An analysis of the current needs of Chinese churches through changes since 2010
From 1979 to 2009, Chinese Christianity experienced rapid growth and accumulation, with a tenfold increase in both the number of believers and churches. However, after 2010, it has been difficult to observe a vibrant growth trend based solely on the external numbers of believers and churches.
According to Pew in August and December 2023, Christianity flourished in China after the economic reforms and opening up to the world in the 1980s. However, recent survey reports on religious affiliation do not provide much evidence of continued growth after 2010.
Despite this, since 2010, while not experiencing widespread growth as before, some churches have still grasped the needs and opportunities of the times to experience growth. These churches capitalized on two periods of dividends:
2010-2019—The era of basic pastoral care dividends
Churches that met the demand for basic pastoral care, such as providing daily pastoral care, discipleship training, or small group activities, experienced growth. This was a time when believers no longer lacked meeting venues but instead sought inner growth and learned how to live out their faith in all aspects of life.
2019-2023—The era of online gathering dividends
The pandemic-driven surge in demand for online gatherings saw growth for churches that could fulfill believers’ needs for gatherings and pastoral care online. This was a time when physical gatherings became difficult due to the COVID-19 pandemic and other reasons.
More than a decade has passed since the period of vibrant growth. However, the growth of some churches during 2010-2024 demonstrates that even after the peak growth period, churches can still achieve growth by sensitively responding to the needs of the times.
We can still find clues from the numerical comparison. According to the 2018 White Paper "China’s Policies and Practices on Safeguarding Freedom of Religious Belief," there are over 38 million Christian believers and approximately 57,000 religious clergymen. Based on these figures, one grassroots religious cleric is responsible for the pastoral care of about 667 believers. If we use the official data from 2014, which estimates the number of Christian believers in China between 23 million and 40 million, accounting for 1.7% to 2.9% of the total population. Calculating with 40 million Christians and 60,000 grassroots pastors yields similar results, where each pastor is tasked with shepherding approximately 667 believers. Even if the data is halved due to various reasons, a grassroots pastor still has to shoulder the pastoral care of at least 400-500 people. This scale of 400-500 members is considered a medium-sized church in Western Christianity. In other words, on average, a pastor needs to provide pastoral care and meet the service demands of no less than a medium-sized church.
It can be seen that from 1979 to 2009, the Chinese church experienced a period of robust growth, resulting in a large number of new-generation Christians (the term "new generation" refers to those who grew up in Christian families). This also fostered significant pastoral care needs among these believers. In contrast, the proportion of pastors is relatively low, and the Chinese church has undergone various epochal changes, leading to limited spiritual inheritance and accumulation. Therefore, satisfying this demand poses a significant challenge.
The current state of Chinese Christianity resembles a vast but shallow beach. Jesus once compared building a house on rock versus sand to illustrate the differences in outcomes brought by the strength of foundations: "Therefore everyone who hears these words of mine and puts them into practice is like a wise man who built his house on the rock. The rain came down, the streams rose, and the winds blew and beat against that house, yet it did not fall because it had its foundation on the rock. But everyone who hears these words of mine and does not put them into practice is like a foolish man who built his house on sand. The rain came down, the streams rose, and the winds blew and beat against that house, and it fell with a great crash." (Mathew 7: 24-27)
Although it seems that Chinese Christianity has passed its peak growth period, it still faces immense demands in terms of both depth and breadth:
Depth issues: The re-pastoral care needs of tens of millions of Christians, accounting for at least 2% of China’s population accumulated from 1979 to 2009, include demands for their spiritual growth, the inheritance of faith in their families and the next generation, as well as their needs in the workplace and daily life.
Breadth issues: Being in an environment where 98% of the population is non-Christian means that the breadth of outreach is still very low. Increasing the outreach by even 1 percentage point represents a significant number. In a society where Christian culture is on the margins, extending outreach requires extensive cultivation, which is now different from the era of the 1970s and 1990s. It cannot rely solely on spreading the gospel through word of mouth to attract people. It requires deeper cultivation and pastoral care, thus implying greater pastoral care needs.
It can be seen that the current needs of the Chinese church are different from those during the previous periods of gathering and venue dividends. The greatest need now is for intensive or refined pastoral care.
Where is the future potential and dividend period for the Chinese churches?
An increasing number of churches have realized this need. Therefore, many related pastoral care courses, resources, and system reconstructions have emerged in the past decade, such as discipleship training, small-group pastoral care, and family courses. These are attempts to provide more refined pastoral care based on the needs of different groups, all representing intensive pastoral care.
A pastor in East China said that his investigation found that churches that implemented discipleship training and small-group pastoral care had experienced growth in the past decade. He believes that this trend will continue for at least 5-10 years.
A pastor in South China talked about his pastoral philosophy: pastoral ministry is about fostering families. The essence of fostering a church is to care for the families, and the core of the church is the families.
A pastor in North China observed that pastoral care for families was becoming increasingly important, representing a new trend.
The consensus among pastors in various regions is that churches today cannot over-prioritize growth in size and quantity as they did in the past, but instead need to focus more on quality and internal development.
Not long ago, I learned from a sister who has served in churches across different denominations and theological backgrounds, "Now is the era where wherever there is pastoral care, there are groups of believers." This statement aptly captures the core needs of believers today, who desire more refined and in-depth pastoral care. Those who strive to fulfill these needs will experience growth.
The primary responses to this current demand include:
Providing systematic pastoral care for the entire congregation;
Tailoring refined pastoral care based on specific groups (e.g., singles, families, professionals);
Assisting in the faith inheritance of the next generation;
Training and developing young pastoral staff;
Meeting the demand for social services.
The demand for social services is showing an increasing trend, including the urgency of mental health issues, the growing elderly population, and the need for cultural activities. "Social services are like a deep-water pier for the church," said a Christian engaged in social charity. He has observed that the contemporary social environment has undergone significant changes, making it more difficult to bring people to churches than before. Therefore, the key to a paradigm shift is for the church to go out into the community.
It is evident that churches need to identify and capitalize on the dividend period of meeting the needs of the times or the hearts of people to bring about a new round of growth. The most critical need at present is the demand for in-depth pastoral care and social services.
Stagnation or reorganization?
Rather than saying that the Chinese church has entered a stagnation or bottleneck period since 2010, I tend to believe it has entered a period of reorganization. However, many within the church are still unaware of this, so many will continue to rely on past growth models or make only passive adjustments to address issues like slow growth or others. A clearer understanding of the current stage and historical tasks can help us find and explore coping strategies more effectively.
From 1979 to 2009, the Chinese church experienced robust growth under God’s grace. After 2010, many shortcomings of the Chinese church became apparent, including in pastoral care, theological education, evangelism, integration into society, and social services. Now is a good time for reorganization.
Elijah, a prophet highly favored by God, displayed great miracles by praying for drought and rain, confronting 450 false prophets, and greatly manifesting God’s glory on Mount Carmel. He even brought fire and water down from heaven to accomplish awe-inspiring works. However, after all this, he was persecuted by Queen Jezebel and fled to the wilderness, losing hope and even seeking death under a broom tree. Facing Elijah sleeping under the broom tree, God’s angel prepared a jar of water and cakes made of roasted grain for him. After waking him up, Elijah ate and drank, saying, "Get up and eat, for the journey is too much for you." (1 Kings 19:7) Later, after re-experiencing God, he was given a new mission.
This is analogous to the current situation of the Chinese church. From 1979 to 2009, it experienced a remarkable growth miracle that attracted worldwide attention. Now is our time for reorganization, "for the journey is too much."
At present, the Chinese churches need to undergo reorganization in many aspects, including pastoral care, theological education, evangelism, and integration into modern society. We believe that God’s grace and protection are present in the current Chinese church, and we hope that after this period, the church will, like Elijah, re-experience God and respond to His new mission.
- Translated by Charlie Li
Voice: Is Christianity in China Stagnant or Reorganizing?
