In the past 20 years, the key factors that determine population flow have been the regional economic scale and the per capita income gap of each region in the country. The basic logic of population migration is that people follow the high trend and the industry. The impact of the pandemic in the past three years might break this rule of social mobility.
A few days ago, a pastor in Shenzhen finds some reasons why increasingly more young and middle-aged migrant workers choose to return to second-or third-tier cities or their hometowns to settle down and develop.
Over the past 20 years, the decline of rural churches and the rise of new-type churches in cities are closely related to urbanization and population migration, which is generated by the times. In recent years, more and more young and middle-aged migrant workers choose to return to the third-and fourth-tier cities and towns to develop. Will it also bring some influence to local Christian churches?
For example, pastors in first-and second-tier cities have found that the return of migrant workers to their hometowns has caused their churches to face greater population mobility, posing new challenges to pastoral care. At the same time, how can challenges be turned into opportunities? Can town-level churches seize this opportunity and get revival again? Such are topics to be closely focused on in the future.
Pastor Y from Shenzhen analyzes that there are three main reasons for the current population migration flow, that is, the high cost of living, the tide of layoffs, and the desire to settle down.
The high cost of living
Pastor Y points out, “At present, many factories and supply chains can’t circulate because of pandemic control and other reasons, rendering some companies unable to make profits and have normal capital flow. Knowing that dismissing employees for no reason is a violation of the labor law, some bosses use the strategy of giving employees unpaid leave after the company ceases business until the employees themselves resign. In the first-tier cities, the economic pressure on migrant workers is great, especially for families with children who need education. The high living expenses and rent in cities, coupled with transportation expenses, social occasions, or gift money (the Chinese custom of sending money to friends or relatives for illness, wedding, birth or funeral, etc., translator’s note), will make them consider the idea of returning to second-and third-tier cities. The locals in Shenzhen even rent out their own houses and go to Dongguan, Huizhou, and other cities to rent a room.”
The tide of layoffs
Pastor Y also gives the following example: “In 2022, the layoffs of young and middle-aged people in Shenzhen’s Internet industry also come rapidly, especially the big Internet companies that have passed the dividend and high-profit period. Most of them were already profitable and they entered the twilight stage. Therefore, big factories lay off old employees and employ new employees with low wages. After the non-management old employees lose their competitiveness, they are easily fired and lose their original living security. Affected by the pandemic, many employees in the sales industry or corporate headhunters who need to meet different company contacts are beginning to consider changing cities and jobs due to the reduced freedom of work, so it’s easy going out and difficult coming back.”
Settle down
“No matter how hard you work, it is very difficult for an office worker to buy an apartment in a super-first tier city. Nowadays, the trend of middle-aged people is that after 5-10 years of hard work in big cities, they are going to buy their own houses in second-and third-tier cities with these savings, so that they don’t have to pay back loans for decades. They are more willing to find a stable job there. Some migrant workers prefer to stay in their hometown economic development zone and plan to start a new business with the start-up capital at the bottom cost. In short, settling down is the reason why some people leave the north, Shanghai and Shenzhen,” Pastor Y added.
Afterword:
The changes observed by Pastor Y in the workplace are representative. No matter whether it’s in Shenzhen, Beijing, Shanghai or other first-and second-tier cities, migrant workers are leaving. Whether these people are well equipped for discipleship training in churches in these cities and can go to new places to become new gospel seeds is a matter that needs to be figured out thoroughly. At the same time, churches in third-and fourth-tier cities also need to actively prepare various utensils to better serve this group of young and middle-aged people.
- Translated by Charlie Li
在过去的20年里，决定人口集聚的关键是该区域经济规模及与本国其他地区的人均收入差距，其人口迁移的基本逻辑是，人往高处走，人随产业走。将近3年的疫情所带来的影响或将打破这一人员流动规律。（==当summary）
日前，深圳一位牧者发现因为一些原因，越来越多的中青年务工人员选择了回到二三线城镇或者自己的家乡安家和发展。他介绍了自己的这些观察和分析。
过去20多年了农村教会的衰落和城市新兴教会的兴起，与背后的时代大背景造成的城市化和人口迁移息息相关，而近年来伴随着雨来越多的中青年打工群体选择回到三四线城镇发展的现象，是否也会给当地基督教会带来一些影响？
比如，已经有一二线城市的牧者发现，打工人群返乡等导致他们所牧养的教会面对着更大的人口流动现象，对牧养造成新的挑战。而与此同时，如何把挑战变成机会？城镇教会能否抓住这个契机，再次迎来城镇教会的复兴，是一个值得关注的有关未来的话题。
深圳的Y牧师分析说，当下不少人从一二线城市返乡或者移动到三四线城镇这一人口流动现象的原因主要有三个，分别是生活成本高、裁员潮、安家的渴望。
——生活成本高
Y牧者指出：“当下很多工厂和供应链因为疫情管控等各种原因无法流通，因而造成有的公司无法盈利和正常的资金流动。公司老板因知道无理由辞退员工是违反劳动法的，有些老板就在公司停摆后使用的策略就是给员工放无薪的假期，直到员工自己提出辞职。在超一线城市的里，务工人员的经济压力是很大的，尤其是有孩子教育的需要的家庭更是如此。城市生活消费高、房租高，再加上交通费、应酬、份子钱等等，会让起初来打拼的务工人员开始有了回到二三线城市工作的念头。深圳本地人他们甚至把自己的房子出租，拿着租金去东莞、惠州等城市租房生活。”
——裁员潮
Y牧者也举例谈到：“2022年，深圳的互联网行业的中青年裁员潮也迅猛而来，尤其是过了红利期和高额盈利期的互联网大厂，大部分已经盈利饱和，他们已经进入了黄昏的阶段。因此，大厂裁掉老员工，启用工资偏低的新员工，非管理层的老员工失去竞争力后，就容易被裁掉，失去原有的生活保障。受疫情影响，许多做销售行业的员工，那些需要见不同公司人脉的公司企业猎头等等，因为工作的自由度降低，出去容易，回来难的局面，也都在开始考虑换一个城市，换一个工作。”
——安家落户
“无论多么努力打拼，一个上班族在超一线城市买房都是非常艰难的。现在中年人的趋势是，他们在大城市努力攒钱5-10年之后，拿着这些积蓄准备去二三线城市买一套自己的房子，这样也不需要还数十年的贷款。他们更加乐意在那里找一个稳定的工作。也有的务工人群偏好在自己的家乡经济开发区，计划以底成本的启动资金再创业。总之，安家落户，这也是一部分人离开北、上、深的原因。”Y牧者补充到。
笔者手记：
Y牧者所观察到的职场中的变化是具有一定代表性的，无论是深圳、北京和上海等一二线城市，都有这样的务工人员回流现象的发生。这些人员在这些城市的教会是否得到很好的门徒训练等装备，可以到新的地方成为新的福音种子，是一个需要努力的事情。同时，三四线城市的教会也需要积极地预备各样的器皿更好地事奉这群中青年人群。
观察| 疫情下打工人群回流趋势凸显 对教会带来怎样的影响?
In the past 20 years, the key factors that determine population flow have been the regional economic scale and the per capita income gap of each region in the country. The basic logic of population migration is that people follow the high trend and the industry. The impact of the pandemic in the past three years might break this rule of social mobility.
A few days ago, a pastor in Shenzhen finds some reasons why increasingly more young and middle-aged migrant workers choose to return to second-or third-tier cities or their hometowns to settle down and develop.
Over the past 20 years, the decline of rural churches and the rise of new-type churches in cities are closely related to urbanization and population migration, which is generated by the times. In recent years, more and more young and middle-aged migrant workers choose to return to the third-and fourth-tier cities and towns to develop. Will it also bring some influence to local Christian churches?
For example, pastors in first-and second-tier cities have found that the return of migrant workers to their hometowns has caused their churches to face greater population mobility, posing new challenges to pastoral care. At the same time, how can challenges be turned into opportunities? Can town-level churches seize this opportunity and get revival again? Such are topics to be closely focused on in the future.
Pastor Y from Shenzhen analyzes that there are three main reasons for the current population migration flow, that is, the high cost of living, the tide of layoffs, and the desire to settle down.
The high cost of living
Pastor Y points out, “At present, many factories and supply chains can’t circulate because of pandemic control and other reasons, rendering some companies unable to make profits and have normal capital flow. Knowing that dismissing employees for no reason is a violation of the labor law, some bosses use the strategy of giving employees unpaid leave after the company ceases business until the employees themselves resign. In the first-tier cities, the economic pressure on migrant workers is great, especially for families with children who need education. The high living expenses and rent in cities, coupled with transportation expenses, social occasions, or gift money (the Chinese custom of sending money to friends or relatives for illness, wedding, birth or funeral, etc., translator’s note), will make them consider the idea of returning to second-and third-tier cities. The locals in Shenzhen even rent out their own houses and go to Dongguan, Huizhou, and other cities to rent a room.”
The tide of layoffs
Pastor Y also gives the following example: “In 2022, the layoffs of young and middle-aged people in Shenzhen’s Internet industry also come rapidly, especially the big Internet companies that have passed the dividend and high-profit period. Most of them were already profitable and they entered the twilight stage. Therefore, big factories lay off old employees and employ new employees with low wages. After the non-management old employees lose their competitiveness, they are easily fired and lose their original living security. Affected by the pandemic, many employees in the sales industry or corporate headhunters who need to meet different company contacts are beginning to consider changing cities and jobs due to the reduced freedom of work, so it’s easy going out and difficult coming back.”
Settle down
“No matter how hard you work, it is very difficult for an office worker to buy an apartment in a super-first tier city. Nowadays, the trend of middle-aged people is that after 5-10 years of hard work in big cities, they are going to buy their own houses in second-and third-tier cities with these savings, so that they don’t have to pay back loans for decades. They are more willing to find a stable job there. Some migrant workers prefer to stay in their hometown economic development zone and plan to start a new business with the start-up capital at the bottom cost. In short, settling down is the reason why some people leave the north, Shanghai and Shenzhen,” Pastor Y added.
Afterword:
The changes observed by Pastor Y in the workplace are representative. No matter whether it’s in Shenzhen, Beijing, Shanghai or other first-and second-tier cities, migrant workers are leaving. Whether these people are well equipped for discipleship training in churches in these cities and can go to new places to become new gospel seeds is a matter that needs to be figured out thoroughly. At the same time, churches in third-and fourth-tier cities also need to actively prepare various utensils to better serve this group of young and middle-aged people.
- Translated by Charlie Li
What Impact Does Migrant Workers’ Back-Flow Have on Church Due to COVID-19?
